Sub Nocte · wind farms

Which wind farms should stop tonight?

For each wind zone, the nocturnal migration forecast for the coming nights and what stopping would cost with the wind forecast. The suggestion is to stop only when passage is heavy and wind is light; otherwise, watch or keep running.

305wind zones
35,139turbines
47.5GW installed
7of 7 nights with a suggested stop

Map by night

stopstop at peak hourswatchrunsize: installed capacity

Zone by zone

The night picked above. Zones with a suggested stop first and, within each group, the largest capacity first.

zonecountryturb.MWpassagewind 100 m (m/s)outputstopping issuggestion
Comarca de la Costa Granadina36.5N3.5WSpain3631very high4.65%cheapstop
Castellón39.5N1.0WSpain1820very high4.14%cheapstop
Loire-Atlantique47.5N2.0WFrance72159very high9.145%moderatestop at peak hours
Morbihan47.5N2.5WFrance66154very high8.740%moderatestop at peak hours
Morbihan47.5N3.0WFrance68135very high9.449%moderatestop at peak hours
Vendée46.5N2.0WFrance61105very high9.248%moderatestop at peak hours
Valdejalón41.5N1.5WSpain1,1611,628high3.46%cheapwatch
offshore49.5N0.0EFrance76502high11.786%expensivewatch
offshore47.0N3.0WFrance82492very high14.695%expensivewatch
offshore48.5N3.0WFrance57438very high15.292%expensivewatch
Deux-Sèvres46.0N1.0WFrance171390high8.543%moderatewatch
Côtes-d'Armor48.0N3.0WFrance140315very high10.059%expensivewatch
Loire-Atlantique47.5N1.5WFrance115286very high9.653%expensivewatch
offshore46.5N3.0WFrance34272very high14.293%expensivewatch
Côtes-d'Armor48.0N3.5WFrance142240very high11.174%expensivewatch
offshore46.5N2.5WFrance37235very high13.890%expensivewatch
Campiña de Jerez36.5N6.0WSpain95197high3.93%cheapwatch
Priorato41.0N0.5ESpain204173high5.38%cheapwatch
Maine-et-Loire47.0N1.5WFrance83155very high9.654%expensivewatch
Côtes-d'Armor48.0N2.5WFrance72152high9.043%moderatewatch
Charente-Maritime45.5N0.5WFrance45117high7.730%moderatewatch
Mayenne48.0N0.5WFrance47111high10.058%expensivewatch
Loire-Atlantique47.0N2.0WFrance4087very high9.654%expensivewatch
Comarca del Valle de Lecrín36.5N4.0WSpain4682high6.213%cheapwatch
Ille-et-Vilaine48.0N2.0WFrance3071high9.754%expensivewatch
offshore48.5N2.5WFrance1068very high14.790%expensivewatch
Finistère48.0N4.0WFrance4465very high10.060%expensivewatch
Somontano de Barbastro41.5N0.0ESpain1164very high12.388%expensivewatch
Finistère48.0N4.5WFrance3663very high13.792%expensivewatch
Hérault43.5N3.5EFrance3162high13.099%expensivewatch
Côtes-d'Armor48.5N3.5WFrance2559very high11.782%expensivewatch
Charente-Maritime45.5N1.0WFrance2656high8.236%moderatewatch
Vendée46.5N1.5WFrance3053high8.336%moderatewatch
Calvados49.0N1.0WFrance2352high11.480%expensivewatch
Vendée46.0N1.5WFrance2644very high10.061%expensivewatch
Loire-Atlantique47.0N2.5WFrance2039very high11.175%expensivewatch
Calvados48.5N1.0WFrance2038high10.468%expensivewatch
Finistère48.5N4.0WFrance3238high11.675%expensivewatch
Guarda40.0N7.5WPortugal14433high2.91%cheapwatch
Finistère48.5N5.0WFrance1831very high14.995%expensivewatch
Manche49.0N2.0WFrance1529high10.160%expensivewatch
offshore48.0N5.0WFrance3429high14.695%expensivewatch
Manche48.5N1.5WFrance1324high11.174%expensivewatch
Ille-et-Vilaine48.0N1.5WFrance1121high10.062%expensivewatch
Comarca del Valle de Lecrín37.0N4.0WSpain1120high5.06%cheapwatch
Jaén37.5N4.0WSpain2315high2.51%cheapwatch
Ourense42.0N8.0WSpain1111high3.62%cheapwatch
Braga41.5N8.5WPortugal700high2.30%cheapwatch
Marne48.5N4.0EFrance4721,253low7.726%moderaterun
Campo de Belchite41.0N1.0WSpain4511,178low9.961%expensiverun
Somme49.5N2.5EFrance3801,036low8.738%moderaterun
Campo de Gibraltar36.0N6.0WSpain589797low4.04%cheaprun
Eure-et-Loir48.0N1.5EFrance300791low9.855%expensiverun
Burgos42.0N4.0WSpain385755low7.726%moderaterun
Campo de Daroca41.0N1.5WSpain218748moderate8.539%moderaterun
Oise49.5N2.0EFrance304748low9.856%expensiverun
Burgos42.5N4.0WSpain548728low6.216%cheaprun
Nord50.0N3.0EFrance216693low9.448%moderaterun
Aisne49.5N3.5EFrance238650low7.827%moderaterun
Aisne49.5N3.0EFrance224626low8.434%moderaterun
Pas-de-Calais50.0N2.5EFrance220626low9.651%expensiverun
Comarca de Baza37.0N3.0WSpain303624low3.51%cheaprun
Somme49.5N1.5EFrance256595low10.365%expensiverun
Marne48.5N3.5EFrance204580low7.322%cheaprun
Pas-de-Calais50.0N2.0EFrance239565low9.245%moderaterun
Soria41.0N2.5WSpain364557low4.85%cheaprun
Hoya de Huesca42.0N1.0WSpain234557moderate7.023%cheaprun
La Rioja42.0N2.0WSpain432542moderate2.72%cheaprun
Palencia42.0N4.5WSpain474523low7.221%cheaprun
La Rioja42.0N2.5WSpain390511moderate6.115%cheaprun
Vienne46.0N0.0EFrance186486moderate8.646%moderaterun
Vila Real41.5N8.0WPortugal286462low4.76%cheaprun
Zaragoza41.5N1.0WSpain411448low5.010%cheaprun
Meuse48.5N5.0EFrance188434low6.213%cheaprun
Pas-de-Calais50.5N2.0EFrance181416low10.261%expensiverun
Tarazona y el Moncayo41.5N2.0WSpain356406moderate5.08%cheaprun
Ardennes49.5N4.0EFrance164396low7.120%cheaprun
Tarn43.5N2.5EFrance185391moderate9.349%moderaterun
Tierra Alta41.0N0.0ESpain216383low10.874%expensiverun
Cuenca39.5N2.5WSpain121361low6.213%cheaprun
Guadalteba37.0N5.0WSpain172351low6.014%cheaprun
Soria41.5N2.5WSpain364342low7.423%cheaprun
Somme50.0N1.5EFrance143333moderate9.956%expensiverun
Haute-Marne48.0N5.0EFrance149328low5.48%cheaprun
Aube48.0N4.0EFrance131316low7.121%cheaprun
Albacete38.5N1.5WSpain695314low9.347%moderaterun
Huelva37.5N7.5WSpain187304moderate6.516%cheaprun
Burgos43.0N4.0WSpain200299moderate6.425%cheaprun
Yonne47.5N3.5EFrance123292low6.414%cheaprun
Valladolid41.5N5.0WSpain297285low8.942%moderaterun
Zona Media42.5N2.0WSpain550283moderate2.21%cheaprun
Els Ports40.5N0.5WSpain187280moderate4.45%cheaprun
Indre47.0N1.5EFrance105278low10.058%expensiverun
Aude43.0N2.5EFrance146272moderate10.466%expensiverun
Terra Chá43.0N7.5WSpain397262low7.738%moderaterun
Seine-Maritime49.5N1.0EFrance96254moderate8.944%moderaterun
Teruel40.5N1.0WSpain235249low8.435%moderaterun
Ardennes49.0N4.0EFrance88246low6.717%cheaprun
Campiña de Jerez36.5N6.5WSpain131239moderate5.410%cheaprun
Marne48.5N4.5EFrance127234low6.918%cheaprun
Deux-Sèvres46.0N0.5WFrance107233moderate8.340%moderaterun
Aube48.0N3.5EFrance105230low8.131%moderaterun
Deux-Sèvres46.5N0.5WFrance93225moderate9.252%expensiverun
Pyrénées-Orientales42.5N2.5EFrance125222low11.173%expensiverun
Aude43.0N2.0EFrance115217low7.828%moderaterun
Ortegal43.5N8.0WSpain956216low8.541%moderaterun
Aveyron44.0N2.5EFrance91210low6.013%cheaprun
Vienne46.0N0.5EFrance82207low8.346%moderaterun
Seine-Maritime49.5N0.5EFrance81207moderate11.275%expensiverun
Coímbra40.0N8.0WPortugal222203moderate4.66%cheaprun
Tierra de Soneira43.0N9.5WSpain187201low8.032%moderaterun
Moselle49.0N6.5EFrance80195low5.310%cheaprun
Hérault43.5N3.0EFrance101193moderate13.199%expensiverun
Loiret48.0N2.0EFrance79191low9.652%expensiverun
Haute-Marne47.5N5.0EFrance82184moderate6.519%cheaprun
Albacete38.5N2.0WSpain421182low10.160%expensiverun
Soria41.0N3.0WSpain175172low7.322%cheaprun
Lozère44.5N3.5EFrance66170moderate5.07%cheaprun
Asturias43.0N7.0WSpain296168low6.117%cheaprun
Ardennes49.0N4.5EFrance62166low7.019%cheaprun
Sevilla37.0N5.5WSpain94166moderate5.310%cheaprun
Charente45.5N0.0EFrance74165moderate6.721%cheaprun
Cher47.0N2.0EFrance61159low8.840%moderaterun
Vila Real41.0N8.0WPortugal329157moderate3.01%cheaprun
Cantal45.0N3.0EFrance94155moderate4.54%cheaprun
Cher46.5N2.0EFrance57154low8.334%moderaterun
Haute-Vienne46.0N1.0EFrance59151low8.549%moderaterun
Coímbra40.0N8.5WPortugal191150low5.18%cheaprun
Cinco Villas42.0N1.5WSpain150146moderate3.86%cheaprun
Comunidad de Calatayud41.0N2.0WSpain113143low6.416%cheaprun
Maine-et-Loire47.0N1.0WFrance59138moderate10.871%expensiverun
Côte-d'Or47.0N4.5EFrance69136low5.59%cheaprun
Nord50.0N3.5EFrance48136low8.840%moderaterun
Soria41.0N3.5WSpain172132low8.033%moderaterun
Huelva37.0N7.5WSpain54131moderate7.829%moderaterun
Valladolid41.5N5.5WSpain206130low8.537%moderaterun
Zamora41.5N6.0WSpain95126low9.957%expensiverun
Bahía de Cádiz36.0N6.5WSpain53124low5.08%cheaprun
Aisne49.0N3.0EFrance56122low8.333%moderaterun
Santarém39.0N9.0WPortugal46121low5.07%cheaprun
Salamanca41.0N6.0WSpain66120low7.625%moderaterun
Doubs47.0N6.0EFrance50120moderate5.27%cheaprun
Albacete38.5N3.0WSpain77118low9.144%moderaterun
Els Ports40.0N0.5WSpain76114moderate4.86%cheaprun
Cantabria42.5N4.5WSpain98106low5.813%cheaprun
Segovia40.5N4.5WSpain210106moderate5.812%cheaprun
Moselle48.5N6.0EFrance40106low4.45%cheaprun
Eure-et-Loir48.0N1.0EFrance43104moderate8.743%moderaterun
Moselle48.5N6.5EFrance50103low4.14%cheaprun
Guadalteba36.5N5.0WSpain59102moderate4.33%cheaprun
Haute-Marne47.5N5.5EFrance43100moderate4.75%cheaprun
Albacete39.0N1.5WSpain36299low12.595%expensiverun
Meurthe-et-Moselle49.0N5.5EFrance4297low5.27%cheaprun
Ardèche44.5N4.0EFrance5596low7.423%cheaprun
Faro37.0N8.0WPortugal4194moderate6.616%cheaprun
Costa del Sol Occidental36.0N5.5WSpain7392low4.86%cheaprun
Côte-d'Or47.5N4.5EFrance3990moderate6.113%cheaprun
Doubs47.0N6.5EFrance3590low5.710%cheaprun
Montaña Alavesa42.5N2.5WSpain19587low4.98%cheaprun
Ciudad Real39.0N4.5WSpain4386low4.24%cheaprun
Vosges48.0N6.0EFrance4284moderate4.96%cheaprun
Aube48.0N4.5EFrance3682low5.710%cheaprun
Deux-Sèvres46.5N1.0WFrance3781moderate9.352%expensiverun
Loiret48.0N2.5EFrance3080low8.942%moderaterun
Guarda40.5N7.5WPortugal14678moderate3.92%cheaprun
Burgos42.0N3.5WSpain10678low8.131%moderaterun
Ciudad Real38.5N3.5WSpain3876low5.17%cheaprun
Meuse48.5N5.5EFrance3875low6.918%cheaprun
Puy-de-Dôme45.5N2.5EFrance3975low7.429%moderaterun
Indre46.5N1.5EFrance3974low9.454%expensiverun
Oise49.0N2.0EFrance3474low7.928%moderaterun
Vienne46.5N0.5EFrance3173low9.253%expensiverun
Cáceres39.5N6.5WSpain1872moderate4.75%cheaprun
Vienne46.5N0.0EFrance2772low9.455%expensiverun
Cuenca39.5N3.0WSpain3772low6.314%cheaprun
Bragança41.0N7.0WPortugal3670low4.02%cheaprun
Pas-de-Calais50.5N1.5EFrance4070moderate11.482%expensiverun
Calvados49.0N0.5WFrance3968low9.454%expensiverun
Asturias43.0N6.5WSpain19068moderate9.452%expensiverun
Meuse49.0N5.0EFrance3367low7.220%cheaprun
Drôme44.5N4.5EFrance3266moderate10.060%expensiverun
Palencia41.5N4.5WSpain9066low5.69%cheaprun
Viseu40.5N8.0WPortugal22765low3.10%cheaprun
Orne48.5N0.5WFrance3464moderate9.757%expensiverun
Guadalajara40.5N2.5WSpain3264low4.96%cheaprun
Manche49.0N1.5WFrance2964moderate10.264%expensiverun
Lisboa38.5N9.5WPortugal7963low5.911%cheaprun
Allier46.0N2.0EFrance3063low8.543%moderaterun
Viseu40.5N8.5WPortugal18662moderate2.60%cheaprun
Cuenca40.0N3.0WSpain5061low3.52%cheaprun
Meuse48.0N5.5EFrance3061low6.717%cheaprun
Castelo Branco39.5N8.0WPortugal12860low5.712%cheaprun
Sarthe48.0N0.0EFrance2460moderate7.832%moderaterun
Yonne47.5N4.0EFrance2958low7.322%cheaprun
Cuenca39.0N2.5WSpain25258low8.333%moderaterun
Yonne47.5N3.0EFrance2858low7.221%cheaprun
Guadalteba36.5N5.5WSpain2658moderate5.17%cheaprun
Toledo39.5N3.5WSpain5957low5.48%cheaprun
Cuadrilla de Vitoria42.5N3.0WSpain4157low2.71%cheaprun
Burgos42.5N3.5WSpain3057low10.671%expensiverun
Mayenne47.5N1.0WFrance2157moderate9.658%expensiverun
Bouches-du-Rhône43.0N4.5EFrance3256low9.349%moderaterun
Comarca de Loja37.0N4.5WSpain5256moderate1.80%cheaprun
Aude43.0N3.0EFrance1756low11.881%expensiverun
Drôme45.0N5.0EFrance2956moderate7.025%cheaprun
Côte-d'Or47.0N4.0EFrance2454low4.75%cheaprun
Mayenne48.0N1.0WFrance2754low9.146%moderaterun
Valencia38.5N1.0WSpain17052low12.588%expensiverun
Gúdar-Javalambre40.0N1.0WSpain5152moderate7.524%cheaprun
Nièvre47.0N3.0EFrance2352low6.011%cheaprun
Seine-Maritime50.0N1.0EFrance2852moderate10.668%expensiverun
Cuenca39.5N2.0WSpain23051moderate6.717%cheaprun
Drôme44.0N4.5EFrance4651moderate15.198%expensiverun
Zamora41.5N6.5WSpain5551low9.246%moderaterun
Bergantiños43.0N9.0WSpain8950low6.723%cheaprun
Los Vélez37.5N2.5WSpain2550moderate5.07%cheaprun
Eure49.0N1.5EFrance2150moderate7.626%moderaterun
Eure-et-Loir48.5N1.0EFrance2550low9.552%expensiverun
Ardennes49.5N4.5EFrance2449low5.59%cheaprun
Faro37.0N9.0WPortugal8048low6.722%cheaprun
Var43.5N5.5EFrance2248low4.13%cheaprun
Lisboa39.0N9.5WPortugal13048low4.75%cheaprun
Eure49.0N0.5EFrance1947moderate8.035%moderaterun
Aude43.0N1.5EFrance3145low4.14%cheaprun
Charente-Maritime45.0N0.5WFrance1243moderate7.935%moderaterun
Yonne48.0N3.0EFrance1543low8.739%moderaterun
Teruel40.5N1.5WSpain1442low10.568%expensiverun
Ulloa42.5N8.0WSpain16742low6.114%cheaprun
Albacete38.5N2.5WSpain50242low10.975%expensiverun
Cantabria43.0N3.5WSpain4341moderate4.28%cheaprun
Xallas42.5N9.5WSpain28540low7.222%cheaprun
Ciudad Real38.5N4.0WSpain2040low4.96%cheaprun
Setúbal37.5N9.0WPortugal2839low4.910%cheaprun
Zamora42.0N7.0WSpain25438moderate5.27%cheaprun
Castelo Branco39.5N8.5WPortugal4138low3.53%cheaprun
Sarria42.5N7.5WSpain2336low5.310%cheaprun
Loiret47.5N1.5EFrance1635low10.057%expensiverun
Segovia41.0N4.0WSpain4135low7.524%cheaprun
Marne48.5N3.0EFrance1535low8.131%moderaterun
Loir-et-Cher47.5N1.0EFrance1834low9.755%expensiverun
Vizcaya43.0N3.0WSpain4034low8.038%moderaterun
Meurthe-et-Moselle49.5N5.5EFrance1834low5.79%cheaprun
Albacete39.0N3.0WSpain4733low9.041%moderaterun
Tarn43.5N2.0EFrance1932low2.00%cheaprun
Guadalajara40.5N2.0WSpain5432low6.716%cheaprun
Aude42.5N2.0EFrance2432low6.316%cheaprun
Salamanca40.5N6.0WSpain3732low5.28%cheaprun
Noia42.5N9.0WSpain26831low4.54%cheaprun
Orne48.5N0.0EFrance1631moderate11.174%expensiverun
Almería37.0N2.5WSpain1530moderate1.60%cheaprun
Guadalajara40.5N3.0WSpain1428moderate2.00%cheaprun
Terra Chá43.0N8.0WSpain76628low7.736%moderaterun
Ain46.0N5.5EFrance1328low2.82%cheaprun
Ardèche45.0N4.5EFrance1328moderate2.61%cheaprun
Maine-et-Loire47.0N0.5WFrance1227low9.453%expensiverun
Cáceres40.0N6.5WSpain1026moderate4.44%cheaprun
Allier46.0N3.5EFrance1926low3.82%cheaprun
Lozère44.5N3.0EFrance1426moderate4.34%cheaprun
Sarthe47.5N0.0EFrance1326moderate9.857%expensiverun
Moselle49.0N6.0EFrance1225low4.13%cheaprun
Ferrol43.0N8.5WSpain3824low7.430%moderaterun
Comarca de Baza37.5N3.0WSpain1224low6.117%cheaprun
Viana do Castelo41.5N9.0WPortugal6524low4.66%cheaprun
Palencia42.0N5.0WSpain11623low7.424%cheaprun
Aveyron44.0N3.0EFrance1023moderate3.21%cheaprun
Oise49.0N2.5EFrance1022low8.231%moderaterun
Coímbra40.0N9.0WPortugal2822low3.56%cheaprun
Valencia39.0N1.0WSpain7820low12.593%expensiverun
Charente45.5N0.5EFrance1020low6.925%cheaprun
Vosges48.0N7.0EFrance1020low4.97%cheaprun
Moselle49.0N7.0EFrance1120moderate4.05%cheaprun
Bouches-du-Rhône43.5N4.5EFrance1620moderate8.441%moderaterun
Altiplano38.0N1.5WSpain1720moderate4.37%cheaprun
Larraun-Leitzaldea43.0N2.0WSpain3319moderate4.77%cheaprun
Haute-Corse42.5N9.0EFrance2019low7.333%moderaterun
Toledo40.0N3.5WSpain1815low5.38%cheaprun
Ávila40.5N5.0WSpain9815moderate5.07%cheaprun
Leiria39.5N9.5WPortugal1014low4.810%cheaprun
Almería36.5N3.0WSpain4013moderate1.20%cheaprun
Bajo Ebro40.5N0.5ESpain16210low10.364%expensiverun
Ávila40.5N5.5WSpain278low5.911%cheaprun
Oporto41.0N8.5WPortugal806moderate2.60%cheaprun
Haute-Corse42.5N8.5EFrance106low7.226%moderaterun
Albacete39.0N2.0WSpain215low8.941%moderaterun
Paradanta42.0N8.5WSpain4224low4.23%cheaprun
Comarca de Sangüesa42.5N1.5WSpain1753low5.810%cheaprun
Segarra41.5N1.0ESpain1302low11.571%expensiverun
Guarda40.0N7.0WPortugal212moderate5.38%cheaprun
Beja37.0N8.5WPortugal180moderate7.424%cheaprun
Cuenca39.5N1.5WSpain1690moderate8.334%moderaterun
Santarém39.5N9.0WPortugal850low7.728%moderaterun
Cuenca40.0N1.5WSpain260moderate7.222%cheaprun
Cuenca de Barberá41.0N1.0ESpain910moderate12.988%expensiverun
Viseu41.0N7.5WPortugal150low3.62%cheaprun
Anoia41.5N1.5ESpain500low8.344%moderaterun
Bragança41.5N7.0WPortugal730low5.710%cheaprun
Zamora42.0N6.0WSpain430low6.821%cheaprun
León42.0N6.5WSpain750low6.919%cheaprun
Terra de Trives42.0N7.5WSpain610low5.28%cheaprun
León42.5N6.5WSpain1820low6.416%cheaprun
Deza42.5N8.5WSpain2530low5.812%cheaprun
Asturias43.5N6.5WSpain310moderate10.665%expensiverun
Mariña Occidental43.5N7.5WSpain720low10.155%expensiverun
Ferrol43.5N8.5WSpain250low8.338%moderaterun
Île-de-France48.5N2.0EFrance140low6.919%cheaprun

Passage: the night's level against the zone's own record at the same date. Output: the share of capacity the turbines would deliver with the forecast wind over the night hours.

The week at a glance

Per night, how many zones reach very high and where stopping is suggested.

nightzones at very highstopstop at peak hourswhere (largest capacity)
Tue 20 Oct232 zones · 31 MW4 zones · 553 MWLoire-Atlantique, Morbihan, Vendée, Comarca de la Costa Granadina
Wed 21 Oct2222 zones · 3,282 MW—Campo de Gibraltar, Guadalteba, Albacete, Valladolid
Thu 22 Oct825 zones · 168 MW3 zones · 1,075 MWAisne, Ardennes, Comarca del Valle de Lecrín, Aude
Fri 23 Oct131 zone · 92 MW—Costa del Sol Occidental
Sat 24 Oct12219 zones · 3,087 MW2 zones · 112 MWCampo de Gibraltar, La Rioja, Guadalteba, Campiña de Jerez
Sun 25 Oct145 zones · 3,009 MW2 zones · 1,005 MWValdejalón, Campo de Gibraltar, Hoya de Huesca, Zaragoza
Mon 26 Oct1110 zones · 3,523 MW1 zone · 10 MWValdejalón, La Rioja, Tarazona y el Moncayo, Huelva

Why stop, and only on a few nights

Figures computed from the same data that feed this page.

A broad front that crosses everything

In autumn, 38 of the 43 radar stations on the map see the passage heading between south and south-west, 31 of them with a steadiness of 0.7 or more. It is not a narrow corridor: it is a river of birds hundreds of kilometres wide sweeping France and Iberia towards the Strait. Every wind farm along it is in its way.

A few nights decide it

At the median station, the heaviest 10% of nights carry 54% of the whole season's passage. Stopping on those nights protects a lot; stopping on the rest, little.

And they tend to be calm nights

Tested on 2021-2026 at 151 zones, the rule would have stopped 7.5 nights per season and zone, for 3.1% of the night output; stopping on every very high night would cost 12.8%. Measured with the forecast itself, which flattens the peaks, it covers 8.8% of the predicted passage.

The radar confirms the chosen nights

On the nights the rule says stop, the nearest radar measured heavy passage 67% of the time; by chance it would be 24%. That is 2.8 times more.

How it is computed

  1. Wind zones

    The turbines mapped in OpenStreetMap are grouped into cells of 0.5° (about 55 × 42 km in Iberia). A cell with 10 turbines or more is a zone, and its forecast point is the centre of its turbines. Countries: Spain, Portugal, France.

  2. How much passage is expected

    The same model as the per-city forecast: it learns from ten years of radar how each night's weather (wind, temperature, pressure, rain) moves migration, and is applied at the zone's point with the Open-Meteo forecast. The level is not absolute: it is set against the zone's own record at the same time of year (ERA5, 2021-2026). High is above its 75th percentile and very high above its 90th.

  3. What stopping costs

    The wind forecast at 100 m over the night hours goes through a generic power curve: nothing below 3 m/s, rated power from 12 m/s and safety cut-out at 25 m/s. Out comes the share of capacity the zone would produce. Below 25%, stopping is cheap; from 50%, expensive.

  4. The suggestion

    The two halves cross in the fixed table below. It is a way of ranking nights, not a stop order: each farm and its monitoring plan decide.

The decision table

stopping is cheapmoderateexpensive
very highstopstop at peak hourswatch
highwatchwatchwatch
moderaterunrunrun
lowrunrunrun

«Stop at peak hours»: with wind, stopping all night already costs; the hours of heaviest passage are enough, usually the first of the night.

What this page does not say

To go further

Sources

Turbines: © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL). Weather forecast: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0). Each zone's record: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis. Radar: vol2bird profiles from Aloft (CC0) over the AEMET, IPMA and Météo-France radars. Coasts and borders: Natural Earth.

The code and each night's data (data/wind/forecast.csv) are in the repository.